New Zealand Dollar at Clear Risk as RBNZ Independence Threatened

The New Zealand Dollar was by far the worst performing G10 currency and fell against all major counterparts to end the week’s trade. The antipodean currency languished on similarly lackluster performance in financial market risky asset classes, while fairly bearish interest rate developments likewise sparked NZD losses. New Zealand’s opposition Labour Party leader withdrew his party’s support for an incredibly important facet of Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy. Increased discontent with New Zealand dollar appreciation has led many politicians to question the RBNZ’s inflation-targeting policies—calling for the central bank to control exchange rate fluctuations. It is worth noting that the opposition party currently trails the ruling National Party in opinion polls, but this is nonetheless a legitimate threat to RBNZ independence and could likewise derail confidence in the domestic currency.
A light economic calendar in the week ahead will likely keep FX traders focused on political developments, and it remains critical to watch debate on the RBNZ rolling forward. Thursday’s Trade Balance result is a key exception, and it will likely play a role in the ongoing RBNZ episode. Consensus forecasts call for a sizeable NZ$480 million deficit for the month of October—the second-worst result for the past year. New Zealand exporters have been feeling the pinch from the strong exchange rate, and such untoward effects have only emboldened the political movement against RBNZ inflation targeting. Suffice it to say, an especially large deficit could add further fuel to the political fire, and it will be important to watch markets’ reaction to the data. The New Zealand Dollar will likely remain volatile in the week ahead—especially as it remains near significant peaks against its US namesake. It is easy to forget that the NZDUSD had rallied by nearly 60 percent off its lows, and such incredible strength leaves it at clear risk of a large correction. It is now a mere 5 percent off of its 2009 highs, but any further news to suggest the RBNZ will target the New Zealand Dollar exchange rate could easily force a much larger drop

Australian Dollar Strength May Succumb To Interest Rate Expectations

The Australian dollar surged to a fresh yearly high of 0.9408 earlier this week following the rise in risk appetite however, the high-yielding currency may have reached a top in November as investors scale back expectations for higher interest rates in the $1T economy. Nevertheless, as the rally remains support by the 50-Day SMA at 0.9015, we may see the AUD/USD retrace the four-day decline over the following week as investors weigh the prospects for a sustainable recovery within the region.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes spurred speculation that the central bank may hold a neutral policy going into the following year and curb the pace of rate hikes as the outlook for future policy remains an “open question,” and the drop in the interest rate outlook may drag on the exchange rate as policy makers hold a cautious outlook for future growth. Credit Suisse overnight index swaps shows investors are pricing a 62% chance for a 25bp rate hike next month, which is down from 83% in the previous week, while market participants speculate the central bank to raise borrowing costs by nearly 140bp over the next 12-months as policy makers maintain their dual mandate to ensure price stability while fostering full-employment. The RBA said “business and consumer confidence could prove fragile” over the following year and saw a risk for a protracted recovery as the government stimulus begins to taper off, and went onto say that the outlook for monetary policy “remained an open question” as the board aims to balance the risks for the economy. In addition, the central bank reiterated that the marked appreciation in the Australian dollar is likely to “constrain output and dampen inflationary pressure” going forward, but at the same time, the RBA argued that “a lengthy period with interest rates at a very low level carried its own risk” as the economy skirts the global recession. At the same time, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its economic outlook for the region and expects the growth rate to expand at an annual rate of 2.4% over the following year amid an initial forecast for a 1.2% rise in June, and the group expects to see “a gradual tightening of monetary policy” going forward as growth prospects improve. As a result, the economic docket for the following week is likely to spark increased volatility in the exchange rate as economists forecast business spending to rise 1.0% in the third-quarter after expanding 3.3% during the previous three-month period, while construction outputs are anticipated to hold flat after falling 0.1% in the second quarter

Canadian Dollar Tracking its Commodity Compatriots to its Detriment

The Canadian dollar was battered this past week - and not just against its benchmark US counterpart. Despite lacking some of the most vital statistics of a carry currency; the loonie has long enjoyed an ill-deserved association to the high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollar. However, just as surely as the Canadian unit enjoyed the benefits of its alliance; it will also suffer from the short-falls. This leverages a lot of what happens to the loonie this week and beyond on the pace and direction of underlying risk appetite; but this really isn’t a unique situation as most of the market is traveling the same road. However, a distinctive bond to the US dollar as well as a monetary policy position in flux can certainly complicate things.
In the week ahead, Canadian dollar traders will follow first and foremost general risk trends. Though this currency’s benchmark lending rates are near zero (its market-based yields aren’t much better) and the economy’s recovery is still a work in progress; it has enjoyed all the tangible benefits of a carry currency like the Australian or New Zealand dollar. Where is this link made? Primarily through commodities. As investor optimism and economic growth have recovered this year, capital has sought out those securities with a potential for leveraged appreciation and some level of security (just in case). Clearly, commodities have the characteristics to attract even the most cautious of investors: after peaking at record highs a few years ago, there was clearly lots of room to run; a blatant economic recovery meant true demand; and then there was always the detail that these natural resources are tangible. This is a good example that fundamental strength in the currency market is relative. However, it is also the case that this trait will remain as surely through a correction in risk appetite as during its ascent. If we see a significant shift in risk appetite, the Canadian dollar will lose much of its underserved strength.Aside from risk appetite, the assessment of the loonie’s fundamental strength lies in the same big ticket items (growth, interest rates, monetary policy) that every other currency responds to. Measuring up to its more risk-fit Australian and New Zealand counterparts, the outlook for interest rates is looking stable at its extraordinary lows. This past week, BoC Governor Carney reiterated his intention to maintain rates at 0.25 percent as long as inflation cooperated. Backing the policy authority up, the OECD recommended in its semi-annual economic assessment that the bank keep rates near zero until June of next year and perhaps longer. The market sees little chance that the currency will jump ahead on the yield curve anytime soon as there is no probability of a hike at the December 12th meeting and interest rate swaps are pricing in only 56 basis points worth of tightening over the next 12 months. Perhaps more influential is the deliberation on growth. The OECD offered a moderate assessment of economic activity by saying a recovery began in the summer and was gaining momentum; but the jobless rate would continue to rise into 2010, tempering expansion in the process. Carney was more bearish when he said it was too early to call a recovery and said a currency that was stronger than what fundamentals supported was undermining a more prolific revival.

Swiss Franc Looks To Break Range As Growth Fears Rise

The Swiss Franc trended lower over the past week against the dollar showing potential to break from its recent range but found resistance at the 50-Day SMA at 1.0217. Price action has held below the technical level since August 12 and a break above would leave significant upside potential. Investors worried that current valuations have outpaced underlining fundamentals have generated safe-haven flows providing support for the USD/CHF. Weak Swiss fundamental data added to the bearish franc sentiment as retail sales fell by 1.6% dimming the outlook for domestic growth. An 8.9% drop in clothing led weakness in tobacco, personal goods and furniture as consumers battling rising unemployment continue to retrench. A 0.1% rise in exports was encouraging but not enough to offset weakness generated by falling equity markets.
The OECD raised its GDP forecast for the Alpine economy with positive growth returning at the end of 2009 offsetting earlier weakness for a net decline of 1.9%. Momentum is expected to carry into 2010 and 2011 which are expected to see gains of 0.9% and 1.9% respectively. SNB Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth said on Tuesday 2010 will still be difficult for the Swiss economy, which will not recover from the world's recession quickly. The central bank leader also went on to say that "we have the have the necessary means to withdraw liquidity from markets.” The comments take on more significance with ECB president Trichet signaling that it is time to start withdrawing some measures that supported the financial system through the credit crunch. Swiss policy makers aren’t expected to alter monetary policy in the near-term as they still maintain concerns over deflation as the Franc strength continues to depress prices of imports. Additionally, policy makers are adamant about defending the currency against appreciation in order to drive demand for exports.
It is difficult to gauge where the risk winds may blow next week with the Thanksgiving Holiday on tap. If fears grow that a double dip in growth is ahead we could see traders look to lock in profits in front of the long weekend sending equities lower bringing the Franc in tow. The prevailing uncertainty could see markets quiet leaving the USD/CHF within its current range between 1.0050-1.0200. The upcoming economic calendar has potential to influence price action with consumption, employment and growth data on tap. The UBS consumption indicator remains near a six year low and based on the sharp decline in retail sales we could see continued weakness in demand. The quarterly employment figures may have the most market moving potential as rising employment has crippled domestic growth. The only positive may come from the KOF leading index which continues to point toward an improving economy and rose to its highest level since February, 2008 last month

British Pound Outlook Remains Bearish Ahead of UK GDP Revisions

The British pound lost 1 percent against the US dollar and nearly 2 percent versus the Japanese yen over the course of the past week as the minutes from the Bank of England’s November meeting led the markets to price in fewer rate increases over the next 12 months. The vote count showed that seven Monetary Policy Committee members voted to expand the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) by £25 billion to £200 billion, but one voted for no change while another voted to increase the APF by £40 billion. This suggests that the BOE may be open to expanding the APF later on, and evidence of this will only be amplified by disappointing news.
Looking to this week’s event risk, Tuesday’s data is expected to show that total business investment fell for the fifth straight period in the third quarter, this time at a rate of 3.9 percent. Declines generally don’t bode very well for broader growth, as companies that aren’t investing aren’t likely to be experiencing improved activity or hiring workers. On the other hand, the BBA’s measure of loans approved for house purchases is projected to rise for the seventh straight month in October to 44,000 from 42,088, signaling percolating demand and potentially, increasing prices.On Wednesday, the second reading of UK GDP for the third quarter is anticipated to be revised slightly higher to a quarterly rate of -0.3 percent from -0.4 percent, and an annual rate of -5.1 percent from -5.2 percent. This will continue to reflect the sixth straight quarter of contraction, and the only way the British pound is likely to respond in a positive way is if GDP surprisingly rises on a quarterly basis. That said, traders also need to keep in mind that US markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will close early on Friday, and as a result, volumes will be lower than usual, which may contribute to either flat price movements or extremely choppy trade. The latter may dominate, though, as US-based event risk will be very high. From a technical perspective, FXCM SSI – a contrarian indicator – positioning recently flipped to net long, suggesting GBPUSD could be in for further declines. Additionally, the pair’s break below a rising trendline drawn from the October 13 lows and bearish weekly candle formation leads us to maintain a bearish outlook on GBPUSD.

Japanese Yen Breakout Looms in Thin, Risk-Driven Trade

The Japanese Yen outperformed last week as capital retreated from stocks, commodities and FX carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency. A bland domestic economic calendar and thin liquidity conditions around the Thanksgiving holiday in the US promise more risk-driven volatility ahead.
Although scheduled event risk is ample on next week’s Japanese data docket, the market-moving potential of upcoming releases is limited at best. The Bank of Japan’s monthly report is unlikely to yield much more insight than traders already derived from the most recent interest rate decision. An up-tick in the jobless rate after three consecutive months of moderation coupled with parallel declines in retail trade and household spending will reflect now-familiar concerns about the ebbing effects of fiscal stimulus and should come as no surprise after the central bank’s constant admonitions about a weak consumption outlook. Likewise, another negative yearly consumer price index reading should not be shocking after both monetary and fiscal authorities acknowledged the economy had firmly retreated back into deflationary territory last week, with the BOJ adding that rising oil prices will offer help in that regard in the months to come.
The trajectory of risky assets seems likely to be a far more potent catalyst for price action. Although the earnings season is winding down, the US calendar offers a hefty dollop of market-moving releases that could shake things up on Wall St and consequently translate into Yen volatility. Most notably, the second revision of US third-quarter GDP is expected to be trimmed to 2.9% from the 3.5% initially reported, with at least some of the reduction accounted for by a lower personal consumption levels. Consumer confidence, new home sales, and durable goods orders data is also on tap. Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday adds another dimension to the potential for sharp swings in prices, with any moves heading into the end of the trading week likely to be amplified by thin liquidity conditions and so make the realization of a break past key support and resistance levels that much more likely. This is especially important for USDJPY, where prices are flirting with.

Euro May Finally See a Breakout Against the Dollar This Week Against

There is a lot to watch when trading the euro in the days and weeks ahead. In the background, we have a withdrawal of stimulus that is starting to build momentum, developing interest rate expectations and concerns that the Euro-region economy will fall behind in the bid for recovery as government spending tapers off and exposes the true cut of the nation’s health. However, traders will more concerned with what is in the foreground. A range of notable economic indicators will offers some sense of predictability for volatility. But, the intense threat of an impending break and trend revival rests with intangible fundamental dynamics like liquidity and the influence of a domineering US dollar.
It should come as no surprise to any trader that risk appetite is the primary catalyst and fundamental fuel for the financial markets. After an eight-month trend founded largely on the investors’ need to reinvest funds and take advantage of a historical rally; we have seen confidence turn into hesitation and concern. No other currency translates this sentiment into price action quite like EURUSD does. A big-picture look at this pair shows an intact, rising trend of higher lows from March; but the past few weeks have turned to chop that is starting to develop an ominous bias. This unnatural sense of calm is reason enough to worry about a potential breakout this week; but aligned with the unusual market conditions that back this liquid pair up, the probability for a violent end seems far more remarkable. Though a true trend development will come on the basis of underlying sentiment, the currency market will likely take its cues from the US dollar – which has been battered for its safe haven qualities. Adding to the torrential calm, the US markets (adding the greatest single injection of liquidity in the world) is looking at an extended holiday weekend starting Thursday; and in turn, a full-week of notable economic releases will be condensed into just a few days. A constant application of event risk and shallow market depth may be the final ingredients for a breakout. For its own part, the European economic docket is stocked with significant market-movers of its own. At the start of the week (before US liquidity drains), we will be offered a thorough reading of sentiment and growth. The German GfK consumer and IFO business confidence readings will define growth expectations into the months ahead. The former will be particularly important considering the German Finance Ministry recently suggested fourth quarter regional growth would slow from the strong third quarter showing owing to consumers’ efforts to retrench themselves as jobs and wages recede. Perhaps the most visible release of the week, the second (final) reading of 3Q GDP will offer much needed detail on the health of the various sectors. It is important to weigh how much of the recovery to this point is on the back of German citizens, businesses, trade and government. However, trumping the quarterly figure for timeliness, we will also see the first measurements of the November PMI figures. Though they cover predominantly service and manufacturing based activity, it is considered a good gauge for broader growth. Then, after the US markets close up shop early, euro traders will have many more notables including German CPI and Euro Zone confidence readings for most of sectors. In the above mix of scheduled and unscheduled risk, we will likely find the break in EURUSD – whose liquidity alone will likely carry those other euro crosses that don’t already have a direct link to risk along with it. However, we should not lose sight of the big picture. After we see a meaningful reversal in speculative influences, the influence surrounding forecasts for growth and interest rates as well as efforts to improve fiscal health will likely gain prominence